strong>Current Outlook(Tropical Outlook Below)
A strong cold front will bring the coolest temperatures this fall to southeast Texas along with sunny skies and low humidity levels. Very windy conditions today and tonight will give way to decreasing winds on Wednesday and Thursday. This morning’s weather map shows a strong cold front pushing southeast through Texas with a large high pressure system ridging southeast from the Northern Rockies. An elongated area of low pressure persists north of the Yucatan and may bring heavy rain and severe thunderstorms to Florida as the cold front collides with the deep moisture over the region. The upper-level map shows a deepening trough over the Plains as high pressure shifts west to Baja California.
Looking ahead, the high pressure ridge over the Northwest will continue to push southeast into Texas bringing sunny skies and cool temperatures for most of this week. By this weekend, winds will swing back around to the east and southeast and low level moisture will gradually return, along with warmer temperatures, to Texas. A weak upper-high disturbance will track southeast on Sunday and could bring a few showers to Texas, though rain chances will remain fairly low.
Current Surface Weather Map
Current Upper-level Weather Map
Latest Radar Loop
National Satellite View
Tropical Outlook
The chances for tropical storm development have continued to decrease over the past 12 hours as unfavorable upper-level conditions persist across the Tropical Atlantic Basin. Nevertheless, we are continuing to monitor a disturbance associated with a 1002 MB (29.59″) low located near the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. At 8 am, AST, the low was centered near 23 N and 89 W, with a secondary center of lower pressure possibly forming to the northeast of that location in the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance continues to produce a large area of thunderstorms and brisk winds from the Yucatan northeast into the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba and the Florida Keys. With an increasingly unfavorable upper-level environment and an approaching cold front, the system is given only a 10% chance for development by the National Hurricane Center. Further east an elongated and disorganized area of cloudiness persists from the east-central Tropical Atlantic east to south of the Cape Verde Islands. The area is no longer given any chance for development at this time. Elsewhere, the Tropics remain fairly quiet.
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